ARGENTINE BONDHOLDERS SHOULD BE TREATED DIFFERENTLY
(Ambito Financiero, October 29th 2003)
Bondholders residing in Argentina who were once encouraged by the government to invest in sovereign titles (remember the ads all over the city promoting such idea), who had in their majority paid income taxes prior to obtaining the bonds, and personal property taxes when applicable, look stunned as they are now regarded as "speculators," to say the least. Shouldn't Justice intervene to analyze the consequences brought upon by such Government promotion?
Government officials should be more careful when voicing their opinions on resident bondholders. But certainly become more acquainted with the issue before making such statements as "if they were willing to place their funds under those interest rates they now have face the consequences." They should know that back in the '90s those rates were normal and current for emerging countries. Furthermore, in many cases, if we compare the interest rates paid by American or European triple-A (AAA) rated companies on maturity ranges between 10 and 20 years, these were very close and in perfect relation to the rates paid by Argentina.
Clearly the authorities didn't do their homework, since we can't assume their statements were intentionally deceptive.
By proposing such large cuts in the debt-restructuring plan (75 per cent), which rather makes it a confiscation, the authorities will spark countless lawsuits against the country. Those who are in a financial position to wait will surely sue. The Executive Power will be making all Argentines responsible if those suits against the State materialize. Shouldn't the authorities, with the same vehemence that they've showed in the past, warn us about the risks we are taking with the eventual negative outcomes of such suits?
Public debt bondholders residing in our country shall be given the same treatment that was once granted to savers of "corralon" deposits. In this case, authorities decided to issue a note which justly compensated the difference between the artificial exchange rate of 1.40 plus the inflation-linked CER (paid in cash) and the exchange rate at the time of emission of that new note. There can be justice in Argentina. Let's also remember that with the emission of that note private banks were shielded against a greater number of lawsuits.
Resident bondholders should be treated different from foreign bondholders. Residents spend and invest their rents in our country, benefiting our real economy. Foreign creditors benefit the real economy of other countries.
Some are appalled with the idea that the primary surplus is used to send funds abroad and benefit the real economy of other countries. This is not real. Let me re-state it: local bondholders benefit Argentina's real economy. Consequently, the percentage corresponding to local bondholders should be separated from that surplus.
The government postpones the agreement between both parties by making unrealistic proposals. This attitude isolates us from a current opportunity in the international market, where the financial/productive domain looks for emerging countries to allocate their funds. The situation is making these nations' country-risk index drop to a record low. Argentina watches how productive investments avoid us since we are still outside the financial world.
The world is astonished to witness how under the pretense that we "won't pay the debt with the people's hunger," we have ceased to receive productive investments that would greatly benefit us. Benefits such as the creation of dignifying job opportunities, increased fiscal incomes, improved social crisis and growth of the gross product, consequently making the Public Debt/GDP index more reasonable. With this attitude, the government surrenders to the hunger problem for future generations.
The Chancellor invites entrepreneurs to sell their products abroad. The authorities honestly believe that Argentina has chances to increase its added-value exports, as if the government's confiscation tactics would be overlooked. They haven't anticipated the reaction of a potential American, European or Japanese buyer, wondering about the worth of a product from a country that has previously conned him, a relative, or an acquaintance. This approach indicates the Government's poor comprehension regarding the mindset of buyers of massive consumer products.
In order to start growing from 2005 onward, our country needs an avalanche of investment projects to be set in motion right now. Not later, but right now. This is what our authorities fail to understand.
In short, the public debt issue must be resolved with a statistician's vision - otherwise we'll be sentenced to decadence for generations to come.
by Guillermo Carracedo